Most Americans Expect Lower Tax Refunds in 2026 — but Here’s Why Many Will Get More

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Many Americans are bracing for smaller tax refunds this year, but that pessimism may be misplaced. Although 52% of Americans expect to receive a refund, only 35% believe it will be bigger than last year’s, according to a recent Intuit TurboTax survey. The reality is that thanks to new tax changes taking effect, many filers may actually see larger refunds or owe less.

Here’s what taxpayers should know in the 2026 filing season.

Why Many Americans Will See Bigger Tax Refunds in 2026

Most taxpayers weren’t just expecting smaller refunds — among those surveyed, 33% believe their situation will be worse than last year. But according to Lisa Greene-Lewis, CPA and tax expert at Intuit TurboTax, Americans may be too pessimistic.

“Despite apprehension, filers should see up to a $1,000 increase in refunds or a lower balance due,” she said. “Under the new tax bill passed in July, several provisions were passed that can boost consumers’ refunds.”

New 2026 Tax Bill Changes That Can Increase Your Refund

Several new tax rules introduced by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act may work in favor of millions of U.S. taxpayers. Greene-Lewis highlighted the key provisions that could result in a larger refund:

• Child tax credit increased to up to $2,200 per dependent under 17, up from $2,000.
• SALT (state and local tax) cap increased to $40,000 from $10,000 for homeowners with income up to $500,000.
• New deductions for tips and overtime:
  • Workers in tipped professions, like beauticians and ride-share drivers, can now deduct up to $25,000 in qualified tips.
  • Eligible service workers, like firefighters and police officers who earn overtime, can deduct up to $12,500.
  • You may be eligible for the deduction for tips or overtime if you earn up to $150,000 as a single filer or $300,000 if you are married filing jointly
• Additional deduction for seniors: If you are 65 and over, there is an additional deduction of $6,000 on top of the standard deduction. You are eligible for this deduction if your income is up to $75,000 ($150,000 if you are married filing jointly).
• New auto loan interest deduction: If you bought a new car for personal use and it was assembled in the United States, there is a new deduction for auto loan interest up to $10,000. You are eligible for this deduction if your income is up to $100,000 ($200,000 if you are married filing jointly).

These changes could significantly reduce taxable income — and increase refund amounts — for qualifying households.

Which Taxpayers Can Expect Larger Refunds in 2026

Not everyone will see a bigger refund, but several groups are most likely to see a bost this year. According to Greene-Lewis, filers who experienced major life or financial changes often see the biggest differences. That can include people who:

• Had a baby or added a dependent
• Purchased a home or paid mortgage interest
• Earned qualified tips or overtime
• Purchased a car for personal use
• Paid for higher education or student loan interest
• Made significant charitable donations
• Over-withheld taxes from paychecks or bonuses
• Qualify for credits like the earned income tax credit or child tax credit
• People ages 65 and over who are eligible for the new additional deduction for seniors

Why Some Americans Might Still See Smaller Refunds

“There may be some situations where filers may see a smaller tax refund,” Greene-Lewis said. This can include people who:

• Had multiple jobs, freelance income or a pay increase without increasing withholding
• Received bonuses or side-gig income that wasn’t fully taxed upfront
• Had investment income, withdrawals or sold assets
• Adjusted their W-4 to receive more take-home pay during the year

“Although there are some reasons that you could see a smaller refund, it’s possible that you can increase your refund or lower the balance due in these situations,” Greene-Lewis said. “For instance, just because you have a side gig or freelance, that doesn’t necessarily mean you will get a lower refund or owe money.”

If you’re in this situation, you can claim your expenses directly related to your business, like supplies, car expenses and travel, which can lower the taxes you owe.

Steps To Maximize Your Tax Refund This Year

The first step in maximizing your tax refund is to gather all of your documents in one place. Next, Greene-Lewis recommended doing the following:

• Gather documents that report income, like W-2s and 1099s, but also make sure you include receipts for deductible expenses, especially for freelancers and side-gig workers.
• Gather the correct Social Security numbers for your kids. Kids are worth valuable deductions and credits, like the earned income tax credit, which is worth up to $8,046 for a family with three kids — but you need the correct Social Security number to claim them. The IRS reports that 1 out of 5 eligible filers miss the earned income tax credit.
• Make sure you’re aware of the new deductions and credits, like the increased child tax credit, deductions for tips and overtime, the increased state and local tax, new deduction for auto loan interest and the new deduction if you are ages 65 and over.
• Double-check eligibility for credits like education credits, energy credits and dependent-related credits.
• Don’t overlook deductions for student loan interest, retirement contributions or charitable giving.
• File electronically and choose direct deposit for the fastest refund.

“Tax laws change frequently, and deductions and credits have specific requirements that aren’t always obvious,” Greene-Lewis said.

To ensure you don’t miss out on any deductions or credits, she recommended working with a professional or using a tool like TurboTax.

“TurboTax is up to date with the latest tax laws and will help you get the maximum deductions and credits you’re eligible for,” Greene-Lewis said, “whether you want to do your taxes yourself or have an expert do your taxes for you.”

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