25 Places Poised For a Housing Crisis

The housing market has been so hot for so long that it’s natural to get nervous that a crisis could be on the horizon. While most economic markers point to a pretty robust housing market overall in the U.S., depending on where you live, some markets might be in worse shape than others.

In order to find the U.S. metros that could be poised for a housing crisis, GOBankingRates looked at all metros with available data in the U.S., drawing on data from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the 2022 American Community Survey and Zillow.

Some key indicators of crisis include mortgage delinquencies, how long it takes a home to sell after hitting the market, and the number of homes that are sold below their final list price.

Pulling together these indicators, GOBankingRates found the 25 metros that are the most at risk for a housing crisis. Also see the 50 worst housing markets for growth right now.

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.28%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.81%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 0.8%
• Rental vacancy rate: 7.7%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 24.21%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.19%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.79%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 0.9%
• Rental vacancy rate: 1.5%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 26.45%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.58%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.72%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%
• Rental vacancy rate: 6.9%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 28.20%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.23%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.70%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
• Rental vacancy rate: 7.0%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 29.00%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.69%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.08%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
• Rental vacancy rate: 5.1%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 17.58%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.72%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.70%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.2%
• Rental vacancy rate: 8.5%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 21.22%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.10%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.16%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 0.8%
• Rental vacancy rate: 9.3%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 22.85%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.25%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.16%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 0.8%
• Rental vacancy rate: 3.8%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 25.27%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.05%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.87%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.3%
• Rental vacancy rate: 7.4%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 22.42%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.61%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.01%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.1%
• Rental vacancy rate: 5.8%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 16.99%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.08%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.81%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
• Rental vacancy rate: 4.8%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 24.42%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.51%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.99%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.0%
• Rental vacancy rate: 3.3%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 20.87%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.50%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.89%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%
• Rental vacancy rate: 5.4%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 28.56%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.08%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.96%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
• Rental vacancy rate: 7.0%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 22.69%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.03%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.92%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.3%
• Rental vacancy rate: 7.8%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 23.23%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.45%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.88%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
• Rental vacancy rate: 6.6%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 23.93%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.70%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.02%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
• Rental vacancy rate: 9.7%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 23.16%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.64%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.03%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
• Rental vacancy rate: 6.8%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 25.01%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.08%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.13%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%
• Rental vacancy rate: 7.5%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 16.93%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.93%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.93%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%
• Rental vacancy rate: 6.5%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 22.61%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.97%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.06%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.9%
• Rental vacancy rate: 9.5%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 24.18%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.43%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.06%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%
• Rental vacancy rate: 7.8%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 16.00%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.04%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.28%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.0%
• Rental vacancy rate: 10.6%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 22.67%

• Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 5.69%
• Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.18%
• Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.1%
• Rental vacancy rate: 7.9%
• Share of listings with a price cut: 15.95%

Methodology: In order to find the 25 metros that could be poised for a housing crisis, GOBankingRates looked at all metros with available data in the US across the following factors: (1) percent of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent as sourced from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; (2) percent of mortgages 90-plus days delinquent as sourced from the Consumer Protection Bureau; (3) homeowner vacancy rate as sourced from the 2022 American Community Survey; (4) rental vacancy rate as sourced from the 2022 American Community Survey; (5) mean days from when a house hits market to pending sale as sourced from Zillow; (6) percent of homes sold below final list price as sourced from Zillow; (7) mean days from pending to closed sale as sourced from Zillow; and (8) the percent of listings with a price cut as sourced from Zillow. These eight factors were then scored and combined with the highest score indicating the metros most likely to be poised for a housing crisis. Factors (1) and (2) were weighted 3x and factors (4) and (7) were weighted 0.5x. All data was collected on and is up to date as of Sept. 18, 2024.