50 Grocery Items Expected To Get More Expensive in 2025

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Grocery prices were at an all-time high in 2022, having risen by 11.4% over the course of just one year. While grocery prices have since stabilized, rising by 2.6% in the 12 months ending in October 2024, consumers are still concerned about what the future might bring.

Recently, President-elect Donald Trump announced his intention to put a 25% tariff (or tax) on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico. He also said he intends to put a 10% tariff on those imported from China. Should this occur, it could lead to higher prices on foods from those countries.

Considering how many grocery chains rely on imported goods from these countries, there could be a significant impact on consumers who shop at those stores — especially those shopping on a budget.

With that in mind, here are key grocery items that could rise in price in 2025.

20 Grocery Items From China That Could Become More Expensive

A 10% tariff on goods from China could have major repercussions on grocery prices. These are some of the most common grocery items from China that could see a price hike, based on U.S. Department of Agriculture and Trading Economics data:

• Apple juice
• Cereal
• Certain milk products
• Certain spices and baking ingredients (e.g., sugar, cocoa)
• Coffee
• Corn and other vegetables 
• Crustaceans and fish
• Eggs
• Flour
• Fruits
• Garlic
• Honey
• Nuts
• Soaps
• Starch
• Tea
• Vegetable fats
• Vegetable oils
• Vinegar 
• Wheat

24 Grocery Items From Mexico That Could Become More Expensive

It’s not just goods from China that could be affected. Certain grocery items from Mexico might also become more expensive. These are the big ones, based on Trading Economics and Observatory of Economic Complexity data:

• Avocados
• Baked goods
• Beer
• Cereals
• Coffee
• Dairy products
• Eggs
• Fish and other seafood
• Fruit juice
• Hard liquor
• Honey
• Lettuce and cabbage
• Meat
• Onions
• Pickled foods
• Processed fruits
• Processed nuts
• Raw sugar
• Sauces
• Seasonings
• Some spices
• Tea
• Tomatoes
• Tropical fruits

6 Grocery Items From Canada That Could Become More Expensive

Last but not least, foods from Canada could also rise in price. These are some of the most commonly imported foods from there to the U.S., as per Trading Economics and the Bureau of Industry and Security data:

• Alcoholic beverages
• Cereal
• Flour
• Milk products
• Starch
• Cotton

How Much Grocery Prices Could Rise for Consumers

So, how much more can the typical U.S. consumer expect to pay for groceries going forward?

According to the USDA, the typical lowest-income household spent $5,278 on food in 2023. Middle-income households spent closer to $8,989 on food that year. Those in the highest income brackets spent nearly $17,000. This is 32.6%, 13.5% and 8.1% of their after-tax income, respectively.

Third Way, a left-leaning think tank, put out an analysis of how Trump’s proposed tariffs might impact prices going forward. According to their research, the average U.S. household’s annual grocery bill could increase by 3.3%, or $185.

Whether or not this seems like a lot really depends on your household income. Those with special dietary restrictions or needs can also expect to spend more if these tariffs come into effect.

And of course, it won’t be just grocery prices that are affected.

“Tariffs would hit Americans everywhere, from grocery bills to back-to-school shopping to home furnishing and electronics,” Third Way wrote. “And these economic effects may only be amplified by the likely retaliation of other countries on America’s exporting businesses.”

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