Why Thunderbolts’ Box Office Wins Haven’t Saved Disney Stock — but Spell Good News for Investors

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Even the most die-hard Marvel fans have to admit that the past couple of years have been rough on the franchise. Post-“Endgame,” Marvel has continued to churn out content, but by and large, it hasn’t been as well-received as the tales of the OG Avengers. The blow to Marvel’s image as a brand has been as hard and swift as a punch from Captain America.

Even “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” which was Marvel’s most critically acclaimed recent box office success, only served as a bittersweet reminder that creative powerhouse James Gunn was poached by rival DC. Enter the Thunderbolts — not exactly Earth’s mightiest heroes, but the best hopes for Marvel and its parent company, Disney, to have a critical and commercial hit that might boost morale, as well as stock value.

Just days after “Thunderbolts” hit theaters, Disney stock surged nearly 11% on May 7 — but it wasn’t Marvel that moved shares. Robust parks attendance and streaming subscriber growth drove the rally, according to the company’s fiscal Q2 report. Still, the movie’s performance could matter for long-term investor confidence if it signals a creative turnaround for the franchise.

The film, which opened on May 2, rolled out to a respectable $161 million in grosses, largely positive reviews, and many a TikToker claiming, “We’re so back!” But is it enough to make Disney a superpowered stock for investors looking to be heroes for their portfolios?

No Immediate Impact on Disney Stock 

Fans may be excited by Marvel’s new direction, at least for the moment, but the market remains a bit unsure. TipRanks reported that the relative success of “Thunderbolts” didn’t do much to curtail what has been a downward “Thanos snap” of a trend with Disney stock. In fact, the shares were down 3.97% in premarket trading following the movie’s opening weekend, pushing its year-to-date drop to 16.94%.

But to be fair, Disney’s not alone — the broader market has taken a hit in 2025, and entertainment stocks in particular have had a rough go. That makes it harder to pin the stock’s performance solely on one movie, no matter how superpowered it might be.

Though the film’s reported budget was $180 million — meaning it nearly recouped its costs in its opening weekend — there have been reports that reshoots ballooned the budget up to $300 million. The good news is that with international receipts and, hopefully, a long theatrical run, the movie will recoup that money and then some. That said, the film’s solid-but-not-stellar debut may be fueling investor caution.

Or maybe, there’s another reason. Writer William White also speculated that the stock dip — even after a promising weekend for a major Disney/Marvel release — could have an outside culprit:  

“However, this may be more related to President Donald Trump’s proposed 100% tariff on foreign-produced films. The President’s goal is shoring up a failing Hollywood, but movie studios don’t appear receptive to this plan,” said White in a TipRanks article.  

It Could Also Be Too Soon To Tell  

White also reminded readers that “Thunderbolts” was only the beginning of Disney’s summer movie season — and that if Thunderbolts reflects a relatively positive trend, it could end up as the herald of an upward shift in Disney stock:  

“‘Thunderbolts’ may not have been the strong start to the summer box office, but Disney has other films in the docket that are expected to surpass its performance. That includes the live-action remake of ‘Lilo & Stich,’ which is forecasted to bring in $120 from domestic viewers. After that, there’s ‘Predator: Killer of Killers’ on June 6, Pixar’s ‘Elio’ on June 20, ‘The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ on July 25, ‘Freakier Friday’ on Aug. 8, and ‘The Roses’ on Aug. 29.” 

Of course, these movies have to be hits before any impact can be felt in the stock market. And it certainly wouldn’t hurt Marvel’s brand if “Fantastic Four” had a fantastic box office.  

If You Like Disney, Buy Disney  

While it might look like Disney stock could use a jolt of that super serum that turned Bucky Barnes into the Winter Soldier, the situation isn’t as dire as it may seem — especially after shares surged nearly 11% on May 7 following a strong earnings report.

Earlier this year, GOBankingRates investigated the outlook for the House of Mouse and found that most analysts still consider Disney worth buying — or at least holding onto — for long-term investors who believe the company’s storytelling engine still has gas in the tank.

Sources:

• Source: William White, “Disney’s Thunderbolts Couldn’t Stop a DIS Stock Dip Despite Its Box Office Beat” 
• Vance Cariaga, “Is Disney Stock a Good Investment for 2025? Experts Weigh In” 
• Yahoo Finance, “Disney lifts profit outlook after delivering solid parks, streaming results“

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