I’m a Banking Expert: 6 Ways a Trump Win Could Affect Your Bank Account
Written by
G. Brian Davis
Edited by
Nicholas Morine
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The Trump-Vance campaign views itself as business-friendly, and aims to spur economic development through tax cuts and lifting regulatory restrictions.
But how specifically might a second Trump presidency affect your bank account?
We rounded up thoughts from several banking and finance experts to get a more granular view of what we could expect from our bank account balances.
1. Lower Interest Rates
“The lending environment may benefit from lower interest rates under President Trump,” explains Alina Trigub, managing partner at SAMO Financial. Lower interest rates boost demand for borrowing, as loans become cheaper.
The president can’t wave a magic wand to lower interest rates — but they can replace the chairperson of the Federal Reserve. Sidney and Saundra Curry, certified financial instructors and founders of BC Holdings of TN, say that Trump intends to do just that. “Mr. Trump has signaled that he plans not to extend Jerome Powell’s tenure as Fed Chair, but instead to bring in a close ally.”
2. Real Estate Industry Boost
Interest rates affect one industry more than any other: real estate.
Lower interest rates make the monthly payments more affordable on the same size loans. That spurs demand and home buying activity, which fuels all of the businesses related to real estate such as title companies, appraisers, home inspectors, real estate brokerages — and of course banks and other mortgage lenders.
“Lower interest rates typically increase real estate activities, generating more jobs and a stronger economy,” Trigub added.
Greater affordability for monthly payments means buyers can afford to bid more for the same home. That can drive up home prices — good news for sellers, bad news for buyers (in terms of up-front costs).
3. Credit Reporting
In June of 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris announced new proposed rules by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) that would ban medical bills from appearing on consumer credit reports.
That would make it easier for borrowers with medical judgments to get loans, of course. But wiping information about creditworthiness from the record doesn’t eliminate risk of default. With less predictive information when pricing loans, banks typically spread the risk premium across the pricing for all borrowers.
In other words, all borrowers may pay slightly higher rates, rather than just borrowers with outstanding medical debts. Or banks may put more weight on other risk factors to determine loan pricing.
The above is less likely to happen under a Trump presidency.
4. Uncertainty Over Tariffs & Trade Wars
“Tariffs will be a priority on all goods coming into the country, under a second Trump Administration,” observed the Currys. While that could fund tax cuts and boost domestic manufacturing, it also raises questions about trade wars — particularly with China.
“The end goal is to tame the many countries who presumably take advantage of the United States. But a trade war with China potentially increases market volatility for retirement accounts.”
Other analysts foresee less geopolitical uncertainty under a Trump presidency. Chartered financial analyst Thomas Brock of Annuity.org predicted more stability: “I believe a conservative administration could foster greater geopolitical stability and a more business-friendly agenda domestically. I think the economy will improve and financial markets will exhibit more sustainable buoyancy.”
5. Inflation Risk
Christian Maldonado, tax consultant and founder of Finsult, also suggested higher tariffs and tax changes as being on Trump’s agenda. “I believe Trump will pick up where he left off when it comes to import tariffs and tax cuts across the board.”
But tariffs, tax cuts, lower interest rates, and an improving economy all share one thing in common: they’re inflationary. “Many economists and financial experts believe that these policies could lead to higher inflationary values for the American consumer,” warned the Currys.
6. Tighter Regulation on ESG Funds
The Currys continued: “Another economic policy shift includes implementing strict regulations on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) funds. That could inadvertently affect retirement savings.”
Some analysts worry that ESG funds have grown faster than their financial fundamentals merit, largely due to political and regulatory favor. Open markets have a tendency to correct pricing with time, but Trump could hasten any correction by changing the regulations that govern these funds.
Final Thoughts
“A pro-business administration will hopefully spur economic growth, increasing lending activities and therefore boosting banks’ revenue,” added Trigub. “These policies should positively impact the stock market, and hence indirectly 401(k) balances, IRAs, and stock market investments.”
No matter what the political future holds, stick with the fundamentals in your personal finances. Budget for a high savings rate, invest every dollar you can, and use tax-advantaged accounts when possible. Do that, and you’ll sit pretty regardless of who ends up in the Oval Office.
Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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