I’m an Economist: Here’s My Prediction for Social Security If JD Vance Is Vice President
Written by
Laura Beck
Edited by
Chris Cluff
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Social Security is a hot-button issue and many Americans — especially those closing in on retirement age — are attempting to read the tea leaves. The truth is it’s often dependent on the incoming administration and we won’t know that until November.
GOBankingRates spoke with Anthony Termini, a seasoned investment advisor from Annuity.org, to get his opinions on what Social Security could look like if Donald Trump wins the white house and J.D. Vance is the vice president. While the future is never certain, here are some interesting factors to consider. You can also read about how much money retirees may save if Trump eliminates Social Security taxes.
The Role of the Vice President
The Vice President’s constitutional powers are limited, but one significant role could influence Social Security policy.
“Vance’s tie-breaking authority might be extremely powerful regarding changes to Social Security,” Termini said.
This becomes relevant if the Senate reaches a tie on Social Security legislation, as the Vice President would cast the deciding vote.
Proposed Changes to Social Security
While we don’t know J.D. Vance’s specific stances yet, we can look to Trump and the Republicans for a decent idea.
“Donald Trump has campaigned on eliminating payroll withholding that funds Social Security,” Termini said. “House Republicans want to raise the minimum age to receive benefits and favor reducing the primary insurance amount on which benefits are determined.”
Termini suggests that if these proposals come to a Senate vote, “Vance will likely break it in favor of Trump’s desired policies.”
Potential Short-Term and Long-Term Effects
While there might be potential to save Social Security in the short term, the long-term isn’t looking so good.
“Reducing benefits and raising the eligibility age would buy the program a little time. However, the funding cut is certain to gut the program’s effectiveness,” Termini said. “The end result is that Social Security would likely become insolvent, forcing the program to end permanently before 2050.”
Implications for Retirement Planning
If these changes occur, they could significantly impact the average American’s retirement strategies. In that case, there are things you can do. Those things include diversifying retirement income sources, reassessing personal savings rates and evaluating retirement timelines.
Broader Economic Considerations
Of course, the potential shrinking of Social Security could have wider economic implications.
After all, Social Security serves as an economic stabilizer, providing consistent income for retirees. Think about it: If that money isn’t going out to seniors, it’s not coming back into the economy via spending. Therefore, changes to the program could affect consumer spending and economic activity — especially if the program were to disappear completely.
Looking Ahead
As we look forward to what could happen, it’s important to know this isn’t set in stone. Social Security’s future depends on many variables — including political, economic and demographic factors.
As we approach the next election cycle, take the time to review candidates’ positions on Social Security reform. Arming yourself with knowledge and understanding these potential changes can help you make informed decisions about your own long-term financial planning.
Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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