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How the Stock Market Performed in These 12 Presidents’ First Year in Office

March 8, 2025

3 min Read

Written by John Csiszar

Edited by Jenna Klaverweiden

Crisis in USA, rising inflation, devaluation of dollars and the economy. Stock market trading graph with american flag is damage.Effect of recession US economy stock photo

Galeanu Mihai / iStock.com

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In spite of all the fanfare surrounding a presidential election, the stock market ultimately doesn’t care who is in the White House. Corporate earnings and a strong economy are what drive stock prices over multiyear periods. However, various studies have shown that the stock market does tend to trade in certain periods that correspond to the presidential cycle.

Data from the “Stock Trader’s Almanac,” Carson Investment Research and others shows fairly definitely that the third year of a presidential cycle produces far and away the best returns. The data shows that overall, the first, second and fourth years tend to produce fairly similar returns, with the first or second year posting the lowest average annual return, depending on which data set is used.

The reasons behind this cycle make sense. Presidents tend to cater to their base during the first and second years of their terms, often producing middling returns in the stock market. But in year three, most presidents are focused solely on reelection, giving them incentive to pump up the economy and stoke corporate earnings. The fourth year of the cycle often carries a level of uncertainty, with market participants in wait-and-see mode until the election results are decided.

With all of this in mind, here’s a look at how the S&P 500 performed during the first year of every presidential term in the modern era. As the S&P 500 came into existence only in 1957, only presidents inaugurated for the first time after 1957 are included below. President Dwight D. Eisenhower was inaugurated in 1957; however, as that was his second term, his results are not included in the list below. The second term of other eight-year presidents are also excluded.

Also see how the economy performed under each president from President Lyndon B. Johnson to President Joe Biden.