4 Stock Predictions From JP Morgan for the Rest of 2025
Written by
Jacob Wade
Edited by
Rebekah Evans
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J.P. Morgan recently released their mid-year stock market predictions, giving an expected outlook for the rest of 2025. In general, expectations are tempered for growth, with Morgan predicting a slight decline in the stock market and a hefty chance of experiencing a recession before year end.
Here’s a breakdown of the market predictions from J.P. Morgan on what to expect for the remainder of the year.
S&P 500 To End Year Near 6,000
J.P. Morgan predicted a slight decline in the stock market by the end of 2025. At the time of writing (August 2025), the S&P 500 is around 6,400, but J.P. Morgan predicts it will end the year around 6,000. This would be a decline of about 6% into the end of 2025.
The reason for the prediction stems from political uncertainty, particularly around tariffs and the overall impact of inflation on the U.S. economy. Morgan expects sluggish growth as the impact of high interest rates and tariffs continue to impact businesses.
In addition to a prediction of 6,000 for the S&P 500, here are other equity market predictions for December 2025:
- 345 for the MSCI Eurozone
- 9,000 for the FTSE 100
- 3,000 for the TOPIX
- 1,250 for the MSCI EM
40% Chance of a Recession
J.P. Morgan is currently predicting a 40% chance of recession by the end of 2025. This is a drop from a previous prediction of a 60% chance, but is still a significant risk for investors.
This prediction stems from economic uncertainty of the true impact of global tariffs and the effects of the Fed still not budging on high interest rates. And J.P. Morgan specifically believes there will be higher inflation prints in the coming months, which could curb consumer spending and push us toward a recession.
If a recession does materialize, it could have a significant impact on stock market prices.
Gold To Rise, Oil To Drop
In commodity markets, J.P. Morgan expects Gold to continue outperforming the market and oil prices to drop.
The drop in oil prices is primarily a function of supply and demand. With almost 240 million new barrels of oil being added to global inventories since February, there is plenty of supply available. This can push prices down, with J.P. Morgan predicting prices to drop into the mid-$60 range.
As for gold, political uncertainty, global tensions and overall market volatility may continue to push gold prices even higher. “For investors, we think gold remains one of the most optimal hedges for the unique combination of stagflation, recession, debasement and U.S. policy risks,” said Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at J.P. Morgan.
With gold prices already up over 25% this year alone, this is good news for gold investors and those that have allocated some of their portfolio toward precious metals..
High Bond Yields
Finally, J.P. Morgan expects bond yields to remain high due to the Federal Reserve’s staunch stance on keeping rates high. Bond spreads are expected to widen and J.P. Morgan sees overall annual returns in the 5% to 6% range.
This is good news for fixed-income investors that hold bonds and bond funds in their portfolios. After a few years of falling prices, both short- and long-term bonds are providing attractive yields to investors that are looking for a safe investment vehicle.
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