Will Either a Trump or Harris 2024 Election Win Matter for Your Stocks? (The Short Answer Is No)

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In a presidential race that’s so close between candidates with vastly different economic policy approaches, it’s natural for investors to wonder how the financial markets will respond. 

However, Wes Crill, senior investment director and vice president at Dimensional Fund Advisors, said the outcome of a presidential election is one of many factors that can affect the performance of stocks and bonds. 

“During a presidential election year, it’s natural for investors to seek a connection between who wins the White House and which way the stocks will go,” Crill said. “Some may even wonder whether they should get out of the stock market altogether before the ballots are counted. But a look at history may offer some reassurance.”

Will a Trump or Harris 2024 election win matter for your stocks? The short answer is “no.” Here’s why. 

How Do Presidential Elections Affect the Markets?

Researchers at Dimensional Fund Advisors analyzed over 100 years of U.S. presidential terms and found three key findings:

• U.S. presidents may impact market returns. However, other factors, such as the actions of foreign leaders, interest rates, changing oil prices, and technological advances, also influence the markets. 
• Making investment decisions based on which party controls the U.S. House or Senate is unlikely to lead to better outcomes. 
• Shareholders are investing in companies, not politicians, and stocks haven’t shown much of a party preference. 

“While it may be natural to wonder whether you should make an investment decision based on how you think elections might unfold, data suggests such moves are unlikely to result in better returns,” Crill said. 

He explained, “On the contrary, these moves may lead to costly mistakes, like getting out of stocks based on a hunch and missing rewarding returns. There is a stronger case for investors to look past elections and maintain a steady approach to markets–in other words, make a long-term plan and stick to it.”

Here is a summary of the stock performance during U.S. presidential terms using data gathered from 1901 to January 2024. The average annualized return for presidential terms was 10.28%.

Theodore Roosevelt (R) (1901-1909) 

Cumulative Return: 21.6%

Annualized Return: 2.7% 

William Taft (R) (1909-1913)

Cumulative Return: -1.3%

Annualized Return: -0.3%

Woodrow Wilson (D) (1913-1921) 

Cumulative Return: -6.9%

Annualized Return: -0.9%

Warren Harding (R) (1921-1923)

Cumulative Return: 17.4%

Annualized Return: 6.9%

Calvin Coolidge (R) (1923-1929)

Cumulative Return: 255.9%

Annualized Return: 25.5%

Herbert Hoover (R) (1929-1933) 

Cumulative Return: -82.8%

Annualized Return: -35.6%

Franklin Roosevelt (D) (1933-1945)

Cumulative Return: 194.4%

Annualized Return: 9.3%

Harry Truman (D)  (1945-1953) 

Cumulative Return: 81.7%

Annualized Return: 8%

Dwight Eisenhower (R) (1953-1961)

Cumulative Return: 120.3%

Annualized Return: 10.4% 

John Kennedy (D) (1961-1963)

Cumulative Return: 12.2%

Annualized Return: 4.1% 

Lyndon Johnson (D) (1965-1969)

Cumulative Return: 30.9%

Annualized Return: 5.3% 

Richard Nixon (R) (1969-1974)

Cumulative Return: -16.5%

Annualized Return: -3.2% 

Gerald Ford  (R) (1974-1977)

Cumulative Return: 23.4%

Annualized Return: 8.9% 

Jimmy Carter (D) (1977 to 1981)

Cumulative Return: -0.9%

Annualized Return: -0.2% 

Ronald Reagan (R) (1981 to 1989)

Cumulative Return: 135.1%

Annualized Return: 11.3% 

George H.W. Bush (R) (1989 to 1993)

Cumulative Return: 45%

Annualized Return: 9.7% 

Bill Clinton (D) (1993 to 2001)

Cumulative Return: 226.6%

Annualized Return: 15.9% 

George W. Bush (R) (2001 to 2009)

Cumulative Return: -24.9%

Annualized Return: -3.5% 

Barack Obama (D) (2009 to 2017)

Cumulative Return: 149.4%

Annualized Return: 12.1% 

Donald Trump (R) (2017-2021)

Cumulative Return: 57.3%

Annualized Return: 12% 

Joe Biden (D) (2021 to 2025) 

Cumulative Return: 21.4%

Annualized Return: 6.7% (As of January 2024)

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