Will Your Paycheck Go Up in 2026? Experts Weigh in
Written by
Cindy Lamothe
Edited by
Amen Oyiboke
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If you’ve been eyeing your paycheck lately and wondering whether it might finally get a boost in the coming years, you’re asking a question that’s top of mind for many.
With talk of tax changes, shifts in the job market, and the lingering effects of inflation, the big question is whether take-home pay will actually look different by 2026.
“When clients ask me if their paychecks will increase next year, I understand why,” said Kevin Marshall, CPA, and senior contributor at Amortization Calculator. “A steady income makes a big difference when you’re trying to plan your life — whether it’s buying a house, saving for retirement, or just keeping up with everyday costs.”
It’s not an easy one to answer, but experts are weighing in with insights that could help you prepare and plan ahead.
Many Will Likely See a Raise — But Not a Huge One
“In 2026, yes, many people will likely see a raise, but probably not a huge one,” said Marshall. “The numbers we’re seeing now suggest an average increase of around 3.4%.”
That’s less than the raises people got during the peak inflation period, but still slightly above the old pre-pandemic trend. It’s not dramatic, but it’s growth.
Pay Attention to How Employers Are Giving Out Raises
According to Marshall, the bigger thing to watch is how companies are handing out those raises.
“We’re seeing fewer across-the-board increases and more targeted ones.”
He explained that employers are focusing their resources where they believe they matter most — roles that are harder to fill or directly tied to company growth.
If you’re in healthcare, skilled trades, or a tech role that supports automation or artificial intelligence, chances are better.
“In other sectors, the raises might be smaller, or there may be none at all,” said Marshall.
Jimmy Fuentes, consultant at California Hard Money Lender, shared a similar view that continued pay increases might surely be in sight in the future up to 2026, but not every salary increase would be equal.
“With real estate, as an example of this industry, property values and demand levels in renting will keep on compensating the industry experts,” said Fuentes.
He also observed that with the tightness in the housing markets, salaries of those who are specially trained, such as appraisers, brokers, and construction professionals, may grow.
Taxes Are Another Piece of the Paycheck Conversation
“I wouldn’t expect much change there in 2026 unless Congress takes an unexpected action,” Marshall said.
So most people’s take-home pay will move with their raise, not because of lower taxes.
That’s why he always encourages people to focus on what they can control — things like contributing to a 401(k), utilizing available tax credits, and managing deductions properly.
“That’s where you can sometimes give yourself a small raise, even if your paycheck doesn’t change much.”
What You Do With a Modest Raise Matters Most
Marshall noted that even if you only get a modest raise next year, what you do with it matters.
“I’ve seen people turn a slight annual increase into meaningful long-term savings.”
Avoiding lifestyle creep, increasing retirement contributions, or paying off debt with that extra money can go a long way toward achieving your financial goals.
“It’s not always about how big the raise is — it’s how smart you are with it once it lands in your account. That’s what really moves the needle.”
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