I Asked ChatGPT How Trump’s Policies Could Affect Gas Prices in 2026

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Every election, a new administration comes in and changes policies that have a direct impact on Americans’ finances. What impact will President Donald Trump’s policies in 2025 have on gas prices in 2026?

I asked ChatGPT to analyze existing data from such sources as the Pew Research Center, The International Energy Agency, Reuters and The White House itself. Here’s what it said.

Tariff Waves and Trade Wars

Once in office, Trump moved quickly to make good on his promise of tariffs on many international trading and energy partners, like Canada and Mexico, imposing broad 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, with a 10% rate for Canadian energy exports (with a few exemptions). There’s also a 25% tariff imposed on any country importing Venezuelan oil.

What does this mean at the pump? Tariffs increase costs for imported crude, refined petroleum products and even drilling equipment and energy infrastructure parts, ChatGPT pointed out. Higher import costs get passed down to distributors, then to consumers, in the form of higher gas prices.

Because many tariffs phase in over several months, the biggest effect on pump prices is expected to show up in 2026 as contracts reset and suppliers adjust to the new cost structure.

Energy Policy Tilted Toward Fossil Fuels

The administration has “strongly pushed fossil fuel development,” ChatGPT said, through policy actions like easing export restrictions, loosening regulations and accelerating oil and gas project approvals.

In a best-case scenario, this could boost domestic production enough to reduce American dependence on foreign oil, stabilizing or even lowering prices. However, the payoff isn’t immediate. Oil and gas projects take time to ramp up, meaning the earliest consumers might see relief at the pump would be mid- to late 2026, if new supply comes online as planned.

Volatility and Risk From Policy Uncertainty

More realistically the “mix of aggressive tariffs and a more export-friendly fossil fuel agenda creates policy whiplash,” ChatGPT said. On one hand, the U.S. is pushing more oil and gas production. On the other hand, trade fights or supply hiccups can make it harder to get enough oil on the market, the AI said, which often leads to higher and more unpredictable gas prices.

The International Energy Agency even lowered its forecast for oil demand in 2025, citing risks caused by U.S. trade policies. For drivers, that means 2026 could bring sharper price swings even just from month to month, with the risk of sudden spikes if trade partners retaliate.

What This Means for Your Budget

The financial impact of Trump’s energy policies will vary depending on where you live and how exposed you are to imported fuel or border trade. But here are a few possible scenarios for next year:

• Optimistic 2026 outcome: Increased domestic production ramps up, leading to relatively stable or even lower gas prices. Families could redirect those savings into groceries, debt repayment or retirement funds.
• Pessimistic 2026 outcome: Tariff-driven cost increases hit sharp highs, while new supply lags. That could mean higher gas prices and tighter household budgets throughout 2026, especially for commuters or households in regions with limited fuel options.

What You Can Do About It

Since consumers can’t know for sure what will happen, here are a few practical steps to protect yourself:

1. Think fuel efficiency or electric. If you are planning to buy a new car soon, prioritizing fuel-efficient or electric vehicles can save you money.
2. Build a buffer for fuel-price volatility. Budget as though gas might rise by 10% to 20% in a short period, especially if you live in a transportation-dependent area.
3. Use credit cards or rewards programs that offer fuel discounts or cash back. Those small savings can add up quickly when fuel costs are rising.
4. Keep an eye on trade and energy policy news. If you start hearing about new tariffs, export deals or global trade tensions, consider tightening your budget or pausing discretionary spending for a while.

Trump’s 2025 policies on tariffs and fossil fuels are already changing the energy landscape. By 2026, households could feel the results, either in the form of savings from increased production or higher costs from trade wars. Either way, ChatGPT suggested that planning now will help you stay ahead of the pump price rollercoaster.

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