These 20 Industries Are Expected To Have the Largest Decline by 2031
Written by
Angela Corry
Edited by
Gary Dudak
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The workforce, the economy and the labor market are constantly changing. The fastest-growing industry in 2021 was leisure and hospitality, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, but from 1995 to 2000, it was durable goods manufacturing. Certain jobs that were common 20, 10, and even just five years ago aren’t as common today, and the skills that are most relevant to today’s workers are vastly different from those needed to succeed in earlier decades.Â
Recent events seem to have accelerated the typical evolution that tends to happen in the workplace and job market. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic, chatter about a looming recession, and the increasing development of artificial intelligence have had many workers thinking about how their jobs will continue to change.
Continue reading to find out which industries and sectors are expected to have the largest decline by 2031, which industries will grow, and the factors that may contribute to these changes.
Industries With the Largest Expected Decline by 2031
The following 20 industries are expected to have the largest decline within the next decade:Â
| Industry | Sector | Compound annual rate of change from 2021 to 2031 |
| Tobacco manufacturing | Manufacturing | -7.4 |
| Manufacturing and reproducing magnetic and optical media | Manufacturing | -6.9 |
| Apparel, leather, and allied product manufacturing | Manufacturing | -4.3 |
| Printing and related support activities | Manufacturing | -3.0 |
| Coal mining | Mining | -3.0 |
| Newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishers | Information | -2.7 |
| Satellite, telecommunications resellers, and all other telecommunications | Information | -2.4 |
| Cable and other subscription programming | Information | -2.4 |
| Other furniture related product manufacturing | Manufacturing | -2.2 |
| Engine, turbine, and power transmission equipment manufacturing | Manufacturing | -1.9 |
| Railroad rolling stock manufacturing | Manufacturing | -1.7 |
| Consumer goods rental and general rental centers | Financial activities | -1.6 |
| Other general purpose machinery manufacturing | Manufacturing | -1.6 |
| Iron and steel mills and ferroalloy manufacturing | Manufacturing | -1.4 |
| Electric lighting equipment manufacturing | Manufacturing | -1.4 |
| Metalworking machinery manufacturing | Manufacturing | -1.4 |
| Logging | Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting | -1.4 |
| Textile mills and textile product mills | Manufacturing | -1.4 |
| Agriculture, construction, and mining machinery manufacturing | Manufacturing | -1.4 |
| Office furniture (including fixtures) manufacturing | Manufacturing | -1.4 |
According to this data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the industry expected to have the largest decline by 2031 is tobacco manufacturing. Manufacturing as a whole is heavily represented on this list, with 14 of the 20 industries with the largest decline by 2031 falling into this sector.
Declines in the manufacturing sector aren’t anything new. U.S. manufacturing employment peaked more than 40 years ago in 1979. However, the industries within the manufacturing sector that are seeing rapid declines within the next decade aren’t necessarily the same industries that began declining in the late 20th century.
Following manufacturing, the information sector is the next most represented when it comes to the industries with the biggest projected decline in the next decade. Declining industries in this sector include publishing, telecommunications, and cable programming. Other sectors represented on this list include mining, financial activities, and agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting.Â
Industries With the Largest Expected Growth by 2031
While many industries within the manufacturing sector, among others, are expected to decline within the next decade, there are plenty of job markets with expected growth during the same time. For instance, many industries in the leisure and hospitality sector are expected to grow. Industries in this sector expected to grow the most include:
- Promoters of events, agents and managers
- Amusement parks and arcades
- Performing arts companies
- Spectator sports
- Independent artists, writers and performers
- Accommodation
- Museums, historical sites and similar institutions
Other sectors that include industries with predicted job growth include healthcare and social assistance, mining, information, and professional and business services, among others.
What Is Changing the Labor Market?
There are plenty of factors that affect industry growth and decline across the marketplace. Some of these, like changing demographics and societal influences, can have more gradual effects. But some factors, like artificial intelligence and other new technology, can dramatically change the landscape in a matter of years. And, as the recent global pandemic illustrated, the direction any industry is heading can change virtually overnight.
No one knows precisely how various industries will grow and shrink over the next decade. But workers in tobacco manufacturing or other declining industries may want to start thinking about jobs in growing industries that might offer better job security.
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