I Work at a Car Dealership: 6 Car Brands Whose Prices Might Decline if Trump Wins the Election

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Three cornerstones of ex-president Donald Trump’s economic agenda are increased oil production, high tariffs on imported goods, and an end to Biden administration policies that aim to boost the electric vehicle industry. Should Trump win a second term in November, each of those cornerstones could impact car prices — or not.

Although a president’s policies can influence general economic conditions, they don’t always trickle down to individual car prices. Those prices are determined by various factors, including consumer trends, available inventory, and the normal supply/demand dynamics.

Politics Could Have Little Impact

The sticker prices at car dealerships are mainly derived from manufacturer’s suggestions and prevailing market rates. White House policies have little to do with them unless those policies are directly tied to car sales, according to industry insiders. That holds true whether Trump or his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, win in November.

“I don’t think either one will have much effect on the car business world unless one of them has a policy change in mind ala ‘cash for clunkers’ that would impact it negatively or positively,” said Brian, a veteran dealership employee who spoke to GOBankingRates on the condition that only his first name be used.

In case you need a refresher: “Cash for Clunkers” was the name given to the Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS) program signed into law by President Barack Obama in 2009. According to the National Archives, the program provided $3,500 or $4,500 bonuses to buyers who traded in certain types of vehicles and bought those with lower gas mileage.

The Congressional Research Service determined that incremental vehicle sales prompted by CARS rebates varied from 125,000 to more than 500,000, depending on how many of the sales were assumed to have been pulled forward from later in 2009 or 2010.

“That was one of the best things to spark sales inside of the dealership,” Brian said. “By the time Obama finished his two terms and Trump got in I don’t know that I noticed much a of a difference, other than when rates dropped and people could buy more expensive cars.”

The COVID-19 pandemic “really made cars a lot more expensive,” he added. Although those high prices are still around, there are signs that prices are easing.

“It seems that as inventory increases and cars sit on lots longer the deals are slowly starting to trickle back in,” Brian said.

Cars That Might Decline in Price

Which car brands might see prices decline under a second Trump presidency? That’s not so easy to predict, and some industry officials shy away from even trying. “This is not something we would be able to predict,” Jared Allen, spokesperson for the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), told GOBankingRates in an email.

During his first year as president, Trump announced plans to initiate an investigation that could result in a tariff of up to 25% on imported automobiles and automobile parts, according to a 2018 NADA press release.

According to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, Trump will continue to push tariffs in 2024 — only this time he’s aiming even higher.Earlier this year, Trump said he would put a “100 percent tariff on every single car that comes across the line, and you’re not going to be able to sell those guys if I get elected.”

Tariffs would likely push prices on foreign vehicles higher, experts say — at least over the short term. However, if those higher prices result in lower demand, foreign automakers might eventually have to cut prices to sell more cars.

Meanwhile, a July analysis from MarketWatch found that Tesla and other EV makers stand to “face major price competition” if Trump wins the election and opens the U.S. to cars produced by Chinese manufacturers. In a speech to the Republican National Convention, the ex-president said he might be willing to let Chinese carmakers move production from Mexico to the U.S. to create more manufacturing jobs here.

Higher competition from Chinese brands — coupled with Trump’s vow to end some of the EV incentives introduced by Biden – could lead to lower prices on major EV brands.

Here are six auto brands that could see prices decline should Trump win in November, based on the fact that they are foreign brands, EV brands, or some combination of the two.

1. Tesla
2. Volkswagen
3. Nissan
4. Rivian
5. Lucid Motors
6. Daimler

It might also be instructive to look at cars that sold poorly during Trump’s first term as president. Cars that don’t sell well usually see price reductions at dealerships to move them off the lot. The problem is, there was not a clear pattern of particular models that sold poorly while Trump was in office.

The following table shows some of the worst-selling cars during each full year of Trump’s presidency, based on different sources:

As the above table shows, no single model made the list more than once. Only three brands appeared more than once — Buick, Kia, and Volkswagen.

Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.

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