6 Grocery Items That Will Get Cheaper If Trump’s Canadian Tariffs Go Into Effect
Written by
Stacy Sare Cohen
Edited by
Amen Oyiboke
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At first glance, President Donald Trump’s 25% Canadian tariff looks like another hit to American consumers, driving up grocery prices and adding to the weight of inflation. However, while higher costs appear inevitable, an unexpected upside could soften the blow, according to Michael Collins, CEO and founder of WinCap Financial.
“Canadian exports may increase demand for US-produced substitutes, similarly driving a need to increase supply and reduce prices,” Collins said.
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Milk
According to the USDA, five states — California, Wisconsin, New York, Idaho, and Texas — produce over 50% of the U.S. milk supply. Increased production in these or other states with suitable climates could help lower prices.
Cheese
The U.S. is the largest global cheese producer, generating 11.1 billion pounds annually, according to the World Population Review. Wisconsin is the top producer in the United States, processing 297.2 million pounds of cheese in 2024, followed closely by California.
Butter
While Canada exports butter to the U.S., it is not the primary supplier. Countries unaffected by Trump’s tariffs – -such as Ireland ($332 million in exports), New Zealand ($106 million), the Netherlands ($32.1 million), and France ($20.8 million), according to the OEC — export far more. Meanwhile, California and Pennsylvania, the top U.S. butter producers, could ramp up production to lower prices.
Bread
The U.S. is the world’s second-largest wheat producer, while Canada ranks sixth. U.S. wheat production for 2024-2025 is projected at 1.971 billion bushels — up 9% from the previous year and the highest in eight years, according to the USDA. This increased supply could help keep bread prices in check.
Flour
In recent reports, Canada exported 211,799 tons of wheat flour, with 89.3% going to the U.S., according to Statistics Canada. However, U.S. flour production recently hit a 12-year low, per World Grain. If major American producers like Ardent Mills and General Mills increase output, U.S. grocery costs could drop.
Maple Syrup
Canada is the top producer of maple syrup with an export value of $323.9 million in 2024, according to World Population Review, which includes maple syrup exported to Vermont and other states. The U.S. produced an export value of $27.5 million of maple syrup in 2024. Vermont produces 900,000 gallons of maple syrup annually and lower production numbers in upstate New York.
If Canadian producers pull out of the market, there is a considerable supply, which means Americans won’t be subject to high price increases. If Vermont responds to demand and increases its supply, that could considerably lower the price of maple syrup.
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