Business Loans Drive 2022 Bank Growth as Home and Auto Loans See a Decline
The pandemic saw a reduction in credit card spending with an increase in home loans and mortgage refinances as interest rates dropped. In early 2022, at least so far, the tables have turned. On Feb. 3, Reuters reported that more than half of banks are showing an increase in demand for credit card loans, and less demand for other types of consumer loans. Banks said they expect loans to grow in every category in 2022 — except for home loans, where refinancing demand may drop when the Fed increases interest rates.
On the other hand, banks are expecting profits to be driven by business loans throughout 2022, especially in commercial and industrial sectors such as commercial real estate. The increase in commercial loans seems to indicate that businesses are trying to get ahead of supply chain struggles, bolster their inventory, and plan ahead for economic growth in 2022.
“We continue to believe there is meaningful upside to the C&I growth story as the economy continues to improve,” Jeremy Barnum, JPMorgan CFO, stated last month per Reuters.
The growth in business loans coupled with the increase in consumer credit card spending both point to confidence in the economy, Reuters reported.
“Credit card spend is really climbing right now,” Mitch Kim, head of consumer lending and payments at KeyBank, said last month.
However, analysts have also said to expect business growth to come in fits and starts this year. The Fed’s weekly loan reports have shown that January loans were down roughly 0.8% since the same period early in the fourth quarter, just before the holiday season. But total loans were up 3.8% compared to the same time period last year.
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